Migration has been a significant part of the Turkish-European relationship for decades. Initially driven by labor market needs, the motivations behind Turkish migration to Europe have evolved considerably. This article examines the main drivers of Turkish migration to the European Union (EU) between 2008 and 2018, highlighting the shift from economic to social and security-based reasons.
In the 1950s and 1960s, Europe became a popular destination for Turkish migrants primarily due to employment opportunities. Programs like Germany's "guest-worker scheme" attracted many Turkish workers. Over the decades, political and social upheavals in Turkey, including the 1980 military coup and the Kurdish conflict, also played a significant role in migration trends.
The primary factors influencing Turkish migration to the EU have shifted over the years. Initially, the focus was on economic opportunities. However, from 2008 to 2018, the study reveals a shift towards security and social motivations.
Political instability and decreasing levels of democracy in Turkey have become significant push factors. Many Turkish citizens seek to escape political oppression, lack of freedoms, and social coercion. Countries in the EU, perceived as havens of democracy and human rights, have become attractive destinations.
Social networks and existing Turkish communities in the EU also play a crucial role. These networks provide support systems for newcomers, offering assistance with housing, jobs, and cultural integration. The presence of established Turkish communities makes the transition smoother and more appealing.
The study utilized data from the OECD, Eurostat, and the World Bank, focusing on the number of first residence permits issued to Turkish nationals in EU countries between 2008 and 2018. The analysis considered various factors, including employment rates, wages, living costs, and levels of freedom and democracy.
The regression analysis showed that differences in freedoms between Turkey and EU countries and the strength of social networks were significant determinants of Turkish migration. Specifically, countries with higher levels of democracy and established Turkish communities saw more significant numbers of Turkish migrants.
The landscape of Turkish migration to the EU has evolved from being primarily economically driven to being influenced significantly by security and social factors. As Turkey's political situation continues to evolve, these trends are likely to persist, with democracy and social networks remaining critical drivers.
Further research could explore the impact of highly skilled migrants and the role of identity in migration decisions. Additionally, examining the long-term integration of Turkish migrants in their destination countries would provide a deeper understanding of the ongoing migration dynamics.
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